GLP-1 vs. Bariatric Surgery

Model Scope: Primary sleeve gastrectomy, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, and duodenal switch/SADI in adults. Not validated for revisional procedures, adolescents, or non-bariatric populations.

Data Source: Quantile regression model derived from 2,725 patients across a five-campus academic health system (2021–2026). Internal cross-validation only; not externally validated.

Outcome: Percent total body weight loss (%TBWL) predicted for patients with at least one recorded follow-up weight. Benchmarks may overestimate expected weight loss if patients with poorer outcomes are less likely to return for follow-up.

Medication Benchmarks: GLP-1 medication values are derived from published clinical trial data (SURMOUNT-1, STEP 1, STEP UP) and meta-analyses (Wong 2025, Alexander 2026), adjusted for sex and diabetes status. These are not patient-level predictions and involve different study populations, designs, and follow-up structures than the surgical data. This is not a head-to-head comparison.

Temporal: Surgical model trained on 2021–2026 data. Performance may change over time as surgical techniques and patient populations evolve.

Privacy: All calculations are performed locally in your browser. No data is transmitted, stored, or logged. No cookies are used.

Regulatory: Not FDA-cleared. Not a medical device. For research and educational decision support only. Clinicians and patients retain full responsibility for treatment decisions.